Prior to 2008 bull market is heavily influenced by crude oil supplies shrinking effect, which mainly includes the OPEC (OPEC) countries, Iraq and Venezuela produce crashes, and other non-OPEC output slump.Fracturing proppant Technology and production quotas are direct factors affecting crude oil production, but CNOOC Energy Economics Institute chief researcher Chen Weidong on "Securities Market Weekly" said that a country's oil production in the most fundamental determinants of the country's institutional arrangements.
Year after year into the war in Iraq and the political system "fault", largely hindered the development of the oil industry. But now, the Iraqi oil industry gradually restored, oil production reached 300 million barrels, higher than the 2003 level before the U.S. invasion; May exports 2.5 million barrels, the equivalent of Iran's 2011 Japanese export levels. Iraq expects the country in 2013 is expected to surpass Iran to become OPEC's second largest oil producer, and the ability to double production in five years, reaching 600 million barrels / day. If Iraq continues to increase production, supply and further substantial increase in the low oil prices.
According to data released by OPEC, Venezuela as of the end of 2012 has proven crude oil reserves of 2,976 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves of the world's largest country. However, during the reign of former President Chavez refused to increase investment in exploration of new oil fields, oil production in Venezuela in recent years led to a downward trend, from 3.5 million barrels in 2000 fell to 2.5 million barrels in 2011.ceramic ball The newly elected President Maduro promised to increase investment in the oil industry, the country's oil production in the post-Chavez era is also expected to recover.
U.S. shale oil technology advances is giving non-OPEC countries, and the world's largest ever oil supply to bring progress. U.S. Department of Energy estimates, the United States will make the exploitation of shale oil increased by more than 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil, crude oil production in 2013 will reach 700 million barrels per day.
According to market estimates, the U.S. shale oil production costs in the $ 44 to $ 68 per barrel between the barrel of oil is much higher than normal production cost of about $ 20. However, the exploitation of shale oil is less than $ 6 variable costs, depreciation key is relatively too large, the current depreciation in barrels of oil equivalent of about $ 20. However, the U.S. Department of Energy noted that with horizontal drilling,frac sand companies hydraulic fracturing technology uses, shale oil exploration and development will be a major breakthrough, the cost will be further reduced.
Russian tight oil offshore oil reserves of 1,000 billion barrels, not only to help Russia in 2012 continued to maintain world oil output superpower, Russia's future is also regarded as a major source of oil production upgrade. Russia is sitting offshore oilfield shale oil development, although not as active U.S., but Rosneft (Rosneft) has been with ExxonMobil signed a regional development in Western Siberia oil shale agreement to achieve a major breakthrough.
Citibank released a report that the negative impact of oil producing countries export factors have been reversed over the next decade will be in Brent oil prices may 80-90 U.S. dollars / barrel between the two.
When increasing the supply of crude oil, the global economy is still not back to normal state, which led to slower growth in oil demand.
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